Honeywell's 2026 Outlook: 9,950 New Business Jets by 2035, and the Midsize Cabin Grows Fastest

Honeywell Aerospace expects about 14,000 new business aircraft to be delivered between 2026 and 2035, of which 9,950 are business jets and 4,200 are turboprops. Its 35th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, released on 19 October ahead of the NBAA-BACE show in Las Vegas, also projects that the world's business aircraft fleet will grow by about 29 percent over the decade, from roughly 39,400 aircraft in 2025 to nearly 51,000 in 2035. Midsize jets are the fastest growing segment, with Honeywell forecasting a 40 percent increase.

For a Gulf buyer, the forecast describes the market about to be joined: more aircraft, flown harder, with growth concentrated in the cabin sizes that suit regional missions.

The headline numbers, and why they are not comparable with last year

This edition widens its scope. For the first time, Honeywell counts turboprops and personal jets, mostly the Cirrus SF50 Vision Jet, alongside conventional business jets. Aviation Week reported that this year's figures are therefore not directly comparable with earlier editions. On a like-for-like basis with last year's narrower scope, the jet forecast is 4.4 percent higher than the 2025 outlook, which Aviation Week calculated as roughly 31 percent delivery growth from 2025 through 2035.

Kevin Schwab, Honeywell's strategic planning manager, explained the change to Aviation Week: "If we're producing a market outlook, we should be looking at the entire market."

Annual deliveries are forecast to rise from about 1,280 aircraft in 2026 to more than 1,500 by 2035. By the end of the period, Honeywell expects the value of new aircraft delivered each year to exceed $37 billion.

Where the fleet grows

By 2035 Honeywell expects the global fleet to include about 18,000 turboprops, 15,000 light jets, 9,700 large cabin aircraft and 8,200 midsize jets. Midsize is the smallest of the four by count, but the fastest growing.

That matters for the Gulf because midsize and super midsize jets are the natural fit for most regional flying. A Dubai to Riyadh or Dubai to Doha trip sits comfortably inside their range, and they cost considerably less to own and operate than a large cabin aircraft. A larger midsize fleet means more choice on the preowned market over time and more aircraft available to charter operators.

The fleet will be flown harder than it grows

Honeywell forecasts flight hours to rise about 34 percent between 2025 and 2035, faster than the fleet itself. The release attributes the gap to higher utilisation in charter and fractional operations.

Current activity supports the direction. According to Honeywell, business jet flight hours are up about 4 percent so far in 2026, with large cabin hours up 5 percent and midsize hours up 7 percent. AVNET's earlier analysis of business jet flight hours in 2026 covers how that utilisation is spread across operators and regions.

What operators told Honeywell

The outlook draws on Honeywell's Buyer Expectations Survey, which this year covered 306 non-fractional operators with a combined fleet of 1,558 aircraft. Its main findings:

• 28 percent of operators have at least one aircraft on firm order, slightly above prior years, according to Aviation Week.
• Nine in ten expect to fly the same number of hours or more in 2027 than in 2026.
• Nearly one third plan to increase flight activity in 2027, four percentage points more than a year earlier.
• Performance, meaning range, payload, speed and field performance, is the leading purchase factor worldwide.

Regional priorities differ. Honeywell found that Latin American buyers weigh cost and financing most heavily and European buyers focus on cabin functionality and comfort. Buyers in the rest of the world, the region that includes the Middle East, place more weight on brand and product experience.

Linnea Whisler, president of Commercial Original Equipment at Honeywell Aerospace, described the coming decade as "one of the most robust periods ever for business aviation".

The Gulf in the figures

North America still dominates. The US and Canada account for about 63 percent of global deliveries and fleet, about 68 percent of flight hours and about 83 percent of fractional activity. Latin America holds the second largest fleet, led by Brazil and Mexico, with about 14 percent of deliveries. Europe has about 10 percent of the fleet but 13 percent of flight activity.

The rest of the world is small in share but leads on intent: Honeywell says it shows the highest purchase interest of any surveyed region, naming the UAE as a leading hub and pointing to Saudi Arabia's heavy investment in aviation infrastructure.

The departure figures behind that view are striking. Honeywell's data, as reported by Khaleej Times, puts UAE business jet departures at 5,475, up 102.2 percent over five years, which means activity has more than doubled. Saudi Arabia recorded 3,727 departures, an increase of 42.2 percent over the same period.

What it means for a buyer

A buyer ordering a new midsize or large cabin jet today is joining a queue that the forecast expects to lengthen, not shorten, as delivery rates climb towards 1,500 a year. Delivery slots are worth checking early.

Higher utilisation across the fleet raises demand for the services around the aircraft: maintenance, crew training, parts and ground handling. Owners in fast-growing hubs such as Dubai should expect that pressure to show in management and maintenance costs.

The forecast covers new deliveries, not resale. For the transaction side of the market, including how preowned and new sales are expected to split, AVNET's business jet market forecast to 2030 sets out the Global Jet Capital view.

Honeywell's outlook is a forecast, and its authors note risks including regulatory complexity and shortages of pilots, technicians and maintenance capacity. On its central case, though, the decade ahead brings more jets, more flying, and a Gulf market that is already growing faster than most.