Eighty three percent of the business aviation financiers and brokers Airbus Corporate Jets surveyed across the Middle East expect large business jet flight activity to increase between now and 2030, and 37 percent expect that increase to be dramatic. The figures, reported by Corporate Jet Investor on 7 October 2026 to coincide with its Dubai conference, put the Gulf's own deal makers beside the 60 Asian financiers and brokers ACJ surveyed in May, 85 percent of whom expected large jet purchases to rise.
The Asian survey carried the sharper finding. Fifty six percent of those respondents already see at least a quarter of their sales and financing work as somebody trading up to a larger cabin, and they expect that share to reach 89 percent by 2030. Read together, the two surveys describe the same buyer from two sides: Asia says what the deals look like, the Gulf says how hard the aircraft will be flown.
Bigger Cabins, Flown Harder
What Airbus Corporate Jets heard from 35 financiers and brokers in the Middle East (reported October 2026) and 60 in Asia (May 2026).
Asia: the share of deals that are an owner trading up
Asian respondents saying at least a quarter of their aircraft sales or financing work represents an upgrade to a larger category. The 2030 figure is what the same group expects, not a recorded outcome.
Asia: what buyers are said to weigh
Respondents were asked which factor matters most to the buyer. Among those who name a single factor rather than splitting the two, the cabin edges ahead of the distance.
| Factor | Share of respondents | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Range and cabin space equally | 45% | no single winner |
| Cabin comfort, capacity, customisation | 28% | cabin first |
| Range and mission flexibility | 27% | range first |
Asia: what buyers underestimate
Both answers land on the aircraft this research expects people to buy. A larger airframe carries a larger version of every recurring line on the annual budget.
| Most underestimated at purchase | Share of respondents |
|---|---|
| Operating costs | 40% |
| Residual value | 25% |
Asked separately which commercial factor matters most to buyers, respondents put charter revenue opportunity ahead of both residual value and purchase price.
Three regions, one direction
Airbus Corporate Jets has asked financiers and brokers in three regions the same family of questions. Samples are small and the wording differs: the Middle East figure, as reported, is about flight activity, the other two are about purchases. Read the direction rather than the gap.
| Question | Middle East, Oct 2026 | Asia, May 2026 | US, Sept 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expect large jet growth by 2030 | 83% | 85% | 89% |
| Expect it to be dramatic | 37% | 30% | not reported |
| Expect large jet financing to get easier | not reported | 67% | 62% |
| Respondents | 35 | 60 | 100 |
Sources: Middle East figures from Airbus Corporate Jets research among 35 financiers and brokers, as reported by Corporate Jet Investor on 7 October 2026. Asia figures from Airbus Corporate Jets, "Demand for larger business aircraft in Asia is set to rise", 11 September 2026, reporting research conducted by Pureprofile in May 2026 among 60 business aviation financiers and brokers in Asia. US comparison from ACJ's US market research published October 2025, conducted by Pureprofile in September 2025 among 100 US based financiers and brokers.
What the Gulf survey is
ACJ asked 35 financiers and brokers across the Middle East. It is a manufacturer commissioned survey of a small professional group, so it is an informed view from people who see deals early rather than a measurement of the market. When this article was updated on 8 October, the release had not yet appeared on ACJ's own newsroom, and the figures here are as Corporate Jet Investor reported them.
Where the Gulf differs from Asia
| Question | Middle East, October 2026 | Asia, September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Expect large jet growth by 2030 | 83% (flight activity) | 85% (purchases) |
| Expect that growth to be dramatic | 37% | 30% |
| Expect more light jet use | 80% | not reported |
| Expect more midsize jet use | 78% | not reported |
| Respondents | 35 | 60 |
Three differences matter. The first is the question. As reported, the Asian respondents were asked about purchases and the Gulf respondents about flight activity, and a broker who expects more flying is not necessarily expecting more buying, since utilisation can rise on aircraft already in service.
The second is conviction. Slightly fewer Gulf respondents expect growth at all, but more of those who do expect it to be dramatic, 37 percent against 30.
The third is breadth. Gulf respondents expect growth across the cabin sizes, with 80 percent expecting more light jet use and 78 percent more midsize use. The Asian reading was concentrated at the top: 60 percent expected large and midsize aircraft to outgrow other categories, and 62 percent put 65 to 70 percent of new business jet spending between 2025 and 2034 into large, long range aircraft.
What Gulf buyers are said to weigh
The Gulf survey also asked about the aircraft itself. 92 percent said buyers emphasise fuel efficiency when evaluating a purchase. 83 percent expect use of sustainable aviation fuel to increase over five years, and more than three quarters expect SAF book and claim programmes, under which an operator buys the emissions benefit of sustainable fuel delivered elsewhere in the supply chain, to grow through 2030. 89 percent expect more use of artificial intelligence in flight planning, fuel burn and maintenance prediction, and 72 percent expect low earth orbit satellite connectivity to help sales or operations.
Chadi Saade, President of Airbus Corporate Jets, put the regional case in terms of use rather than prestige, saying organisations increasingly value the flexibility, security and productivity that private aircraft provide.
The Asian upgrade cycle, still the sharper signal
The Asian work was carried out for ACJ by Pureprofile, an independent research firm, in May 2026, and published on 11 September. Its upgrade figure is closer to an observation than a forecast, because 56 percent are describing what already crosses their desks. An upgrade market behaves differently from a growth market: every trade up also releases a used airframe one size down, which is a supply event as much as a demand one.
On what buyers weigh, 45 percent of Asian respondents said range and cabin space carry equal weight, 28 percent named cabin comfort, capacity and customisation first, and 27 percent named range and mission flexibility. 67 percent expect financing a large jet to become easier than financing a smaller one, 75 percent expect fleet modernisation to accelerate, and charter revenue opportunity ranked ahead of residual value and purchase price as the commercial factor that matters most. That last answer means the charter assumption in a financing case is exposed to operator performance and the charter rate cycle, not to the owner's own travel plans.
Asked which costs buyers most underestimate, 40 percent said operating costs and 25 percent said residual value. A larger airframe carries a larger version of every recurring line on the annual budget, from crew to hangarage to engine programme enrolment, and AVNET has set out what those lines add up to across a year of ownership. On residuals, the values data on seven year old aircraft is the place to check an assumption rather than inherit one.
ACJ's earlier US edition, published in October 2025 from 100 financiers and brokers, found 89 percent expecting large jet sales to rise and 62 percent expecting heavy jet financing to get easier. Three regions, the same direction.
The practical read for a Gulf owner
An owner whose missions have quietly got longer is the transaction both surveys describe. Three questions settle whether an upgrade works, and all three come before the aircraft is chosen: what the annual operating budget becomes at the larger size, what residual value is being assumed and on what evidence, and whether any charter revenue in the financing case survives a lower utilisation than the broker's model. The Gulf answers add a fourth: with 92 percent of brokers saying buyers now weigh fuel efficiency, the fuel burn of the type chosen belongs in the purchase case, not only in the running budget.
Brokers in both regions expect larger aircraft to be bought and flown more by 2030. That is a reason to understand the trade, not a reason to hurry it.