Fifty six percent of the financiers and brokers Airbus Corporate Jets surveyed across Asia already see at least a quarter of their sales and financing work as somebody trading up to a larger cabin. By 2030 they expect that share to reach 89 percent.
That figure, from research ACJ published on 11 September 2026, makes a different claim from the rest of the survey. Most of it reads as a demand forecast. This line describes the shape of the deals themselves, and it says that within four years nearly nine in ten transactions these people touch will be an existing owner moving up rather than a new buyer arriving.
An Upgrade Cycle, Not a Growth Forecast
What 60 business aviation financiers and brokers across Asia told Airbus Corporate Jets about their own order books, May 2026.
The share of deals that are an owner trading up
Respondents saying at least a quarter of their aircraft sales or financing work represents an upgrade to a larger category. The 2030 figure is what the same group expects, not a recorded outcome.
What buyers are said to weigh
Respondents were asked which factor matters most to the buyer. Among those who name a single factor rather than splitting the two, the cabin edges ahead of the distance.
| Factor | Share of respondents | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Range and cabin space equally | 45% | no single winner |
| Cabin comfort, capacity, customisation | 28% | cabin first |
| Range and mission flexibility | 27% | range first |
What the same people say buyers underestimate
Both answers land on the aircraft this research expects people to buy. A larger airframe carries a larger version of every recurring line on the annual budget.
| Most underestimated at purchase | Share of respondents |
|---|---|
| Operating costs | 40% |
| Residual value | 25% |
Asked separately which commercial factor matters most to buyers, respondents put charter revenue opportunity ahead of both residual value and purchase price.
Asia against the United States
Airbus Corporate Jets ran the same exercise on the US market and published it in October 2025, with Pureprofile surveying 100 US based financiers and brokers that September. Different samples and different question wording, so read the direction rather than the gap.
| Question | Asia, May 2026 | United States, Sept 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Expect large jet purchases to rise | 85% | 89% |
| Expect large jet financing to get easier | 67% | 62% |
| Sample size | 60 | 100 |
Source: Airbus Corporate Jets, "Demand for larger business aircraft in Asia is set to rise", 11 September 2026, reporting research conducted by Pureprofile in May 2026 among 60 business aviation financiers and brokers in Asia. US comparison from ACJ's US market research published October 2025, conducted by Pureprofile in September 2025 among 100 US based financiers and brokers.
What the research actually is
The work was carried out for ACJ by Pureprofile, an independent research firm, in May 2026, among 60 business aviation financiers and brokers in Asia, all of them working for organisations that own business aircraft or use business aviation.
Sixty is a small sample, and the findings are the considered view of a professional group rather than a measurement of a market. What makes them worth reading is who the sixty are. Financiers and brokers see the shape of a deal months before it becomes a delivery statistic, and they are being asked about their own order books rather than about the economy.
The forecast, and then the part that is not a forecast
On demand, the answers run the way a manufacturer would hope. 85 percent expect purchases of large business jets to increase between now and 2030, and 30 percent expect that increase to be dramatic. 60 percent expect large and midsize aircraft to keep growing faster than other categories through 2030. 62 percent estimate that 65 to 70 percent of all new business jet spending between 2025 and 2034 will go to large, long range aircraft.
Those are opinions about the future. The upgrade figure is closer to an observation about the present, because 56 percent are describing what already crosses their desks, and an upgrade market behaves differently from a growth market. In a growth market a buyer competes with new entrants for new aircraft. In an upgrade market, every trade up also releases a used airframe one size down, which is a supply event as much as a demand one.
Cabin is beating range on the answer sheet
Asked what buyers weigh, 45 percent said range and cabin space carry equal weight. Of the rest, 28 percent named cabin comfort, capacity and customisation as the single most important factor and 27 percent named range and mission flexibility. Among those who pick a side, the cabin edges ahead of the distance.
Chadi Saade, President of Airbus Corporate Jets, framed the same point in the release: buyers are increasingly looking for aircraft that deliver long range capability, greater flexibility and premium onboard experience.
The money is expected to follow the metal
67 percent expect financing a large jet to become easier than financing a smaller one. 75 percent expect fleet modernisation to accelerate over the next five years. Asked which commercial factor matters most to buyers, respondents put charter revenue opportunity first, ahead of both residual value and purchase price.
That last answer is the one that should give a first time large cabin buyer pause. If the deal is being underwritten partly on what the aircraft is expected to earn when its owner is not flying it, then the charter assumption is a financing assumption, and it is exposed to operator performance, utilisation and the charter rate cycle rather than to the owner's own travel plans.
What the same people say buyers get wrong
The survey asked which costs are most underestimated at purchase. 40 percent said operating costs. 25 percent said residual value.
Both warnings land on exactly the aircraft the same respondents expect people to buy. A larger airframe carries a larger version of every recurring line on the annual budget, from crew to hangarage to engine programme enrolment, and AVNET has set out what those lines add up to across a year of ownership. On the second point, residual behaviour in this cycle has been better than the old rule of thumb suggests, and the values data on seven year old aircraft is the place to check an assumption rather than inherit one.
The second leg of a series, read from the Gulf
ACJ ran the same exercise on the United States and published it in October 2025, with Pureprofile surveying 100 US based financiers and brokers the month before. There, 89 percent of financiers expected large jet sales to rise over five years and 62 percent expected heavy jet financing to become easier. Asia now returns 85 percent and 67 percent. The direction is the same in both markets, and on financing the Asian reading is the stronger of the two.
For a Gulf owner this is not a distant market. The Asia to Europe corridor is the mission large cabin aircraft exist to fly, and it passes overhead. Honeywell's most recent business aviation outlook forecasts 8,500 new business jet deliveries worth $283 billion over the coming decade, the highest total in the report's 34 year history, with 20 percent of operators globally holding at least one aircraft on firm order against 17 percent a year earlier. That forecast puts Asia Pacific at 5 percent and the Middle East and Africa at 3 percent of global deliveries, and it describes the Middle East as poised for growth on the back of regulatory change and airport infrastructure, which is the same ground covered in AVNET's guide to which UAE airports serve private aviation.
The practical read
An owner flying a midsize aircraft on missions that have quietly got longer is the transaction this research describes. Three questions settle whether the upgrade works, and all three come before the aircraft is chosen: what the annual operating budget becomes at the larger size, what residual value is being assumed and on what evidence, and whether any charter revenue in the financing case survives a lower utilisation than the broker's model.
The people arranging the money expect nearly nine in ten of their deals to look like this by 2030. That is a reason to understand the trade, not a reason to hurry it.