Business

Three Quarters of the Jets for Sale Are Sixteen Years or Older

A maintenance engineer standing on a yellow scissor platform inspects an open access bay on the forward fuselage of an older light business jet inside a bright daylit hangar, with a laptop and printed inspection sheets on a rolling toolbox cart alongside, a second engineer kneeling with a torque wrench beside the wing, and other aircraft of different sizes parked at irregular angles behind them.

Three quarters of the business jets listed for sale are sixteen years old or older. JETNET put the figure at 74% in its August market barometer, up from 70% a year earlier, and it is the number that matters more to a buyer than the scarcity headline everyone has been quoting.

That headline is real enough. For-sale inventory stood at 6.6% of the operational fleet on a trailing twelve month basis to the end of July, down from 7.3% a year earlier and well under the 9% to 12% band that held across most of the previous decade. Roughly 1,766 aircraft were listed in an average month. The inventory to transaction ratio sat at about 0.63 to one, against the 0.85 to one that was normal between 2013 and 2019. Read on its own, that is a market with less than eight months of supply on the board.

But nobody shops the whole board. A buyer shops an age band, and the two ends of this one are behaving like separate markets that happen to share a label.

The young six percent

Aircraft five years old or younger account for 6% of everything listed. They clear in roughly 53 days. The sixteen years and older cohort, three quarters of the inventory, sits for more than 100 days, and the previous edition of the same barometer put the oldest airframes further out still: 115 days for aircraft aged 21 to 25, and 128 days for anything past 26. The blended average of 96 days, up 1.3% year over year, describes neither group. It is the midpoint of two distributions that barely overlap.

So the shortage a buyer feels depends entirely on what they came to buy. At the young end it means competing for roughly one listing in sixteen, on a clock measured in weeks, usually against other bidders. At the old end it means a wide choice, time to think, and a maintenance position that has to be priced rather than assumed.

Why the young stock is not being replaced

Two things are draining it at the same time.

The first is utilisation. The same JETNET data set has the fleet flying 21.4 hours per tail per month, about 10.5% above 2019, across 3.99 million departures on a trailing twelve month basis. AVNET covered what that pace of flying is doing to the fleet when the figures landed. Hours accumulate against inspection intervals and engine programmes, so airframes reach the expensive part of their lives sooner than the calendar suggests.

The second is the delivery queue. JETNET counted a combined order backlog of $61.6 billion across the four largest manufacturers and 544 deliveries year to date, up 9.2%, with 86% of them going to North America. Rolland Vincent Associates told an NBAA supply and demand panel on 10 September that firm order backlogs grew 13% year on year in the first half while new deliveries rose 5%. The queue is lengthening faster than the line is moving, which is the mechanism that has kept the record order book pushing demand back into the used market rather than absorbing it.

What actually traded

JETNET logged 2,815 transactions on a trailing twelve month basis. Large jets accounted for 812 of them, up 13.7% year on year. Small jets accounted for 1,342 and were flat. Average asking prices ran at $3.52 million for small jets, $5.16 million for medium jets and $14.20 million for large jets.

That pattern is consistent with the second quarter readings from AMSTAT and IADA, which count logged transactions among dealers and the wider market rather than JETNET's trailing twelve month view: transactions up 11.2% year over year, dealer closings up 32%, and inventory draining across most segments. Different methods, same direction.

Three routes, and what each one costs

A buyer who wants a nearly new aircraft in 2026 has three options, and the barometer prices all of them.

Take a delivery position, and the cost is time against a $61.6 billion backlog that is growing faster than output. Chase the 6%, and the cost is price and speed: those aircraft move in under two months and the competition is the whole of the demand the backlog has displaced. Take an older airframe, and the cost moves from the purchase price to the maintenance budget, which is precisely where a thorough pre-purchase inspection earns its fee. The mechanics of that inspection, and what it should be allowed to find before money moves, are set out in AVNET's guide to buying a preowned business jet.

Financing follows the same split. Keith Hayes of PNC Aviation Finance told the NBAA panel that banks remain interested in financing newer, larger cabin aircraft while older jets face tighter terms, and warned against structuring debt solely around current elevated values. That is the scarcity risk stated plainly. A price held up by the absence of alternatives is not the same as a price held up by demand for the asset, and the loan outlives the shortage.

On the macro picture, Taylor St. Germain of ITR Economics told the same panel he expects real economic growth for roughly three more years before a correction around 2030, with inflation persistent and interest rates high through that stretch. Jay Mesinger of Mesinger Jet Sales noted that buyers are continuing to transact through conditions that in earlier cycles would have had them waiting.

The practical read

The 6.6% figure is a trailing twelve month average, not a spot reading, and it flattens the thing a buyer needs to see. There is no general shortage of business jets for sale. There is a shortage of young ones, and a surplus of aircraft old enough that the next inspection cycle is the real negotiation. Which of those two markets a buyer is standing in determines whether the right move is to bid fast, join a queue, or budget for an airframe that has already done most of its flying.

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