Updated with the August 2026 export figures, released by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry on 17 September. This page previously reported the July data.
Swiss watch exports to the United States fell 19.4 percent in August 2026, to CHF 197.5 million, and the American share of Switzerland's output dropped to 11 percent. One month earlier the same market had risen 26.5 percent and taken 26.7 percent of everything the industry shipped. China moved the other way over the same four weeks, from a fall of 18.5 percent in July to a rise of 15.8 percent in August.
The industry as a whole barely noticed. Total exports reached CHF 1.79 billion in August, up 9.1 percent on a year earlier, according to the Federation's monthly release, and the twelve month moving average turned positive for the first time in two years. Cumulative exports for January to August stand 1.7 percent ahead of 2025, above CHF 17 billion.
The previous version of this article argued that one buyer, the American one, was carrying a flat year. The August print does not support that reading, and the reason it does not is the more useful lesson for anyone holding hard assets.
The Swing, Market by Market
The Same Markets, Four Weeks Apart
Swiss watch exports by value, July and August 2026, each against the same month of 2025
July Against August, by Market
Pale bars are July, strong bars are August. Red grew, grey fell.
The US Share, Read Over Two Months
Share of total Swiss watch export value taken by the United States.
The Federation is candid that August was flattered. The month carried one more working day than August 2025, which lifts every year on year line in the release. It also notes that the United States fell despite a favourable comparison base, since August 2025 was the month a 39 percent American duty on Swiss goods first took effect.
Almost every other large market rose. The United Kingdom gained 46.1 percent to CHF 164.7 million, Japan 22.1 percent, Germany 34 percent, Singapore 8.5 percent and Hong Kong 1.4 percent. France more than doubled, up 113.5 percent, although the Federation itself warns that the French figure may have been drawn from neighbouring European markets rather than representing new demand.
The United States remained the single largest destination, but by a margin of CHF 32.8 million over the United Kingdom rather than the several hundred million it enjoyed in July.
What Actually Happened in July
The honest reading of the two months together is that American shipments were pulled forward. The legal basis for the previous 10 percent American duty on Swiss goods expired on 24 July 2026, and Washington announced a Section 301 duty in its place the day before, putting the total rate on Swiss watches at 12.5 percent. Importers who expect a cost change move inventory ahead of it, and those movements show up in export data as if they were demand.
Jean-Philippe Bertschy, the Vontobel analyst who covers the sector, said after the release that the American decline supports the view that the market is still distorted by tariff related inventory movements and tough comparison bases.
Averaging the two months removes most of the noise. Across July and August combined, the United States took CHF 898.8 million of roughly CHF 4.42 billion shipped, a share of about 20 percent. That is above the 17 percent share the Federation recorded for the whole of 2025, and it is a long way from the quarter of global output that July alone suggested. America is a firm market for Swiss watches. It is not absorbing the industry.
These remain export values, the declared worth of goods leaving Switzerland, not retail sales in the destination country. A watch counted in July's American column may still be sitting in a distributor's stock in September.
China Returns, With a Calendar Behind It
China's 15.8 percent rise to CHF 133.5 million is the first strong month for a market that fell 12.1 percent across 2025 and slid from second largest destination to sixth. Coverage of the release noted that Qixi, the Chinese Valentine's Day, fell on 19 August this year, a gifting date that retailers stock ahead of. The Vontobel note was cautious here too, arguing that one positive month is not enough to establish a sustainable recovery given renewed concern about Chinese consumer demand.
The UAE Pulled Away From Its Region
For Gulf readers the more interesting line is closer to home. Exports to the United Arab Emirates rose 6.1 percent in August, after falling 3.7 percent in July. Across the Middle East as a whole, which accounts for roughly 10 percent of Swiss exports, shipments contracted by 6 percent according to WWD's reading of the data. The UAE, ranked ninth among destinations, grew while its region shrank.
Two months of data do not make a trend, but the UAE grew without any calendar effect of the kind that helped China.
Where the Money Went by Price
The mix held up at the top. Wristwatches earned CHF 1.70 billion, up 8.6 percent by value, on 1.1 million units, up 9.5 percent. Watches with an export price above CHF 3,000 rose 10.2 percent, and those below CHF 200 rose 13.3 percent. The only band to fall was the middle one, CHF 500 to 3,000, down 0.9 percent. Precious metal watches rose 6.9 percent by value while their volumes fell 1.3 percent, so the gain came from higher prices per piece rather than more watches.
That is the same shape AVNET has reported across other hard assets this year: fewer superyachts sold for more money, and around 150 artworks making most of the auction market's value. Demand is holding at the very top and thinning in the middle.
What To Watch
The Federation publishes September's figures on 20 October. The first test is whether American shipments settle near the two month average of about 20 percent of exports, which would suggest July and August were one distortion rather than two separate signals. The second is whether China repeats August without a gifting date behind it.
The broader lesson is about reading monthly prints: a series that can move a single market's share from 26.7 percent to 11 percent in four weeks tells a buyer very little in any one month. Two or three months together, read against the tariff calendar, tell a great deal more.